one8tyfive

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sports fifwc-bel-sen-2026-07-01

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$272K net profit from $2.8M of volume, with a 56.1% win rate across 221 trades, a 55% skill score, and a 9.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 55%
Confidence: 94.1%

Share on X

Win Rate

56.1%

Trades

221

Net P&L

+$272.4K

Total Vol

$2.8M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 221 resolved trades (Beta(123, 99))

Cumulative Realized P&L

221 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 221 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -1.1%

Yes3W / 2L

60.0%

5 resolved positions

No11W / 7L

61.1%

18 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (221)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 221

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka	BUYARYNA SABALENKA	60,600.0	$40,241.55	0.664	−$40.2K	Jul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	BUYENGLAND	2,650.0	$1,814.74	0.685	+$835	Jul 12
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs SPARTA (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Group C	BUYSPARTA	176.0	$100.32	0.570	−$100	Jul 12
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUYNO	38,230.0	$31,650.81	0.828	+$6.6K	Jul 12
Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra Eala	BUYALEXANDRA EALA	35,839.9	$20,353.28	0.568	−$20.4K	Jul 12
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	BUYNO	80,656.5	$61,500.59	0.763	+$19.2K	Jul 12
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner	BUYPARIVISION	3,704.9	$2,185.92	0.590	−$2.2K	Jul 12
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D	BUYMOUZ NXT	615.0	$258.30	0.420	−$258	Jul 12
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev	BUYJANNIK SINNER	61,559.9	$49,736.43	0.808	+$11.8K	Jul 12
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 40.5	BUYUNDER	24,992.4	$11,433.09	0.457	−$11.4K	Jul 12

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka

BUYARYNA SABALENKA−$40.2K

Shares60,600.0

Total Traded$40,241.55

Avg Price0.664

ClosedJul 12

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

BUYENGLAND+$835

Shares2,650.0

Total Traded$1,814.74

Avg Price0.685

ClosedJul 12

Counter-Strike: Atreides vs SPARTA (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Group C

BUYSPARTA−$100

Shares176.0

Total Traded$100.32

Avg Price0.570

ClosedJul 12

Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

BUYNO+$6.6K

Shares38,230.0

Total Traded$31,650.81

Avg Price0.828

ClosedJul 12

Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra Eala

BUYALEXANDRA EALA−$20.4K

Shares35,839.9

Total Traded$20,353.28

Avg Price0.568

ClosedJul 12

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

BUYNO+$19.2K

Shares80,656.5

Total Traded$61,500.59

Avg Price0.763

ClosedJul 12

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

BUYPARIVISION−$2.2K

Shares3,704.9

Total Traded$2,185.92

Avg Price0.590

ClosedJul 12

Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #1 Group D

BUYMOUZ NXT−$258

Shares615.0

Total Traded$258.30

Avg Price0.420

ClosedJul 12

Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev

BUYJANNIK SINNER+$11.8K

Shares61,559.9

Total Traded$49,736.43

Avg Price0.808

ClosedJul 12

Auger-Aliassime vs. Fokina: Match O/U 40.5

BUYUNDER−$11.4K

Shares24,992.4

Total Traded$11,433.09

Avg Price0.457

ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

$530

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

-26.5%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaJul 12, 2026 @ 66.4¢BUYARYNA SABALENKA150.666.4¢$100$100-100.0%

2Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceJul 12, 2026 @ 68.5¢BUYENGLAND146.068.5¢$100+$46+46.0%

3Counter-Strike: Atreides vs SPARTA (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Group CJul 12, 2026 @ 57.0¢BUYSPARTA175.457.0¢$100$100-100.0%

4Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Jul 12, 2026 @ 82.8¢BUYNO120.882.8¢$100+$21+20.8%

5Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra EalaJul 12, 2026 @ 56.8¢BUYALEXANDRA EALA176.156.8¢$100$100-100.0%

#1Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka

Jul 12, 2026 @ 66.4¢

$100

BUYARYNA SABALENKA-100.0%

#2Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Jul 12, 2026 @ 68.5¢

+$46

BUYENGLAND+46.0%

#3Counter-Strike: Atreides vs SPARTA (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Group C

Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.0¢

$100

BUYSPARTA-100.0%

#4Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 82.8¢

+$21

BUYNO+20.8%

#5Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra Eala

Jul 12, 2026 @ 56.8¢

$100

BUYALEXANDRA EALA-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.