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HOG993

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$1.9M net profit from $5.6M of volume, with a 31.0% win rate across 197 trades, a 31% skill score, and a 33.8% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
31%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

31.0%

Trades

197

Net P&L

+$1.9M

Total Vol

$5.6M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 197 resolved trades (Beta(62, 140))

Cumulative Realized P&L

198 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 198 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -78.1%

Yes21W / 127L
14.2%

148 resolved positions

No36W / 3L
92.3%

39 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (198)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 198

BUYYES$1.3K
Shares30,000.0
Total Traded$9,999.99
Avg Price0.333
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$717
Shares25,000.0
Total Traded$1,470.58
Avg Price0.059
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$30.3K
Shares3,540,898.5
Total Traded$83,699.76
Avg Price0.024
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$225
Shares15,073.9
Total Traded$224.98
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$149
Shares11,000.0
Total Traded$148.64
Avg Price0.014
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$225
Shares15,073.9
Total Traded$224.98
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$41
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$40.54
Avg Price0.014
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$225
Shares15,073.9
Total Traded$224.98
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$225
Shares15,073.9
Total Traded$224.98
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$41
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$40.54
Avg Price0.014
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$2,000

Win / Loss

0W / 20L

Win Rate

0.0%

Avg Return

-100.0%

15 of 20

#1Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 33.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 5.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 2.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 1.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 1.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.