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Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$960 net profit from $9K of volume, with a 81.8% win rate across 11 trades, a 61% skill score, and a 10.7% return on volume.

Only 11 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
61%
Confidence
85.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

81.8%

Trades

11

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$960

Total Vol

$9.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 11 resolved trades (Beta(13, 8))

Cumulative Realized P&L

11 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 11 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +28.6%

Yes4W / 0L
100.0%

4 resolved positions

No5W / 2L
71.4%

7 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (11)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 11

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$25
Shares3,024.0
Total Traded$2,469.15
Avg Price0.817
ClosedJul 16
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$418
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$145.00
Avg Price0.145
ClosedJul 16
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$124
Shares449.9
Total Traded$326.23
Avg Price0.725
ClosedJul 15
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$244
Shares2,200.0
Total Traded$345.08
Avg Price0.157
ClosedJul 14
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$179
Shares600.0
Total Traded$578.70
Avg Price0.965
ClosedJul 8
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$189
Shares400.0
Total Traded$10.60
Avg Price0.027
ClosedJul 8
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$14
Shares1,300.0
Total Traded$1,189.78
Avg Price0.915
ClosedJul 7
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$86
Shares200.0
Total Traded$14.00
Avg Price0.070
ClosedJul 7
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$5
Shares900.0
Total Traded$895.50
Avg Price0.995
ClosedJul 7
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$55
Shares2,000.0
Total Traded$1,944.79
Avg Price0.972
ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$5,983

Win / Loss

9W / 2L

Win Rate

81.8%

Avg Return

+543.9%

1–5 of 11

#1Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 16, 2026 @ 81.7¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 16, 2026 @ 14.5¢
+$590
BUYYES+589.7%
#3Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 72.5¢
+$38
BUYNO+37.9%
#4Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 15.7¢
+$538
BUYYES+537.5%
#5Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 96.5¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 11 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.