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helloeveryone

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$1K net loss from $65K of volume, with a 49.8% win rate across 217 trades, a 49% skill score, and a -2.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
49%
Confidence
41.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

49.8%

Trades

217

Net P&L

−$1.3K

Total Vol

$65.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 217 resolved trades (Beta(107, 110))

Cumulative Realized P&L

217 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 217 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -18.5%

Yes36W / 53L
40.4%

89 resolved positions

No43W / 30L
58.9%

73 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (217)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 217

BUYNO+$12
Shares1,171.3
Total Traded$886.81
Avg Price0.757
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$2
Shares14.6
Total Traded$2.05
Avg Price0.140
ClosedJul 12
BUYSWITZERLAND$16
Shares78.3
Total Traded$30.40
Avg Price0.388
ClosedJul 12
BUYENGLAND+$3
Shares14.7
Total Traded$9.51
Avg Price0.645
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$31
Shares99.2
Total Traded$68.38
Avg Price0.690
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$31
Shares121.4
Total Traded$71.87
Avg Price0.592
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$86
Shares773.4
Total Traded$619.23
Avg Price0.801
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$277
Shares2,821.7
Total Traded$750.25
Avg Price0.266
ClosedJul 12
BUYOVER$219
Shares1,184.6
Total Traded$1,026.65
Avg Price0.867
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$847
Shares1,773.9
Total Traded$1,734.91
Avg Price0.978
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$3,429

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+171.4%

15 of 20

#1Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 75.7¢
+$32
BUYNO+32.1%
#2Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 14.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 38.8¢
$100
BUYSWITZERLAND-100.0%
#4Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 64.5¢
+$55
BUYENGLAND+55.0%
#5Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 69.0¢
+$45
BUYYES+45.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.