helloeveryone
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$1K net loss from $65K of volume, with a 49.8% win rate across 217 trades, a 49% skill score, and a -2.0% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 49%
- Confidence
- 41.8%
Win Rate
49.8%
Trades
217
Net P&L
−$1.3K
Total Vol
$65.5K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 217 resolved trades (Beta(107, 110))
Cumulative Realized P&L
217 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 217 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -18.5%
89 resolved positions
73 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (217)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 217
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$3,429
Win / Loss
11W / 9L
Win Rate
55.0%
Avg Return
+171.4%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.