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0xc978...aa84

Last updated Jul 20, 10:02 PM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$272 net profit from $12K of volume, with a 100.0% win rate across 4 trades, a 56% skill score, and a 2.3% return on volume.

Only 4 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
56%
Confidence
68.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

100.0%

Trades

4

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$272

Total Vol

$11.6K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 4 resolved trades (Beta(8, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

4 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

At least 5 resolved trades needed to show a rolling trend. This wallet has 4 resolved trades.

Win Rate by Side

No4W / 0L
100.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (4)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

14 of 4

BUYNO+$185
Shares1,166.2
Total Traded$981.31
Avg Price0.841
ClosedJul 20
BUYNO+$20
Shares2,900.5
Total Traded$2,682.94
Avg Price0.925
ClosedJul 5
BUYNO+$4
Shares460.0
Total Traded$448.52
Avg Price0.975
ClosedJul 5
BUYNO+$63
Shares7,762.4
Total Traded$7,513.04
Avg Price0.968
ClosedJul 5

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$33

Win / Loss

4W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+8.2%

#1Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 20, 2026 @ 84.1¢
+$19
BUYNO+18.8%
#2Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 92.5¢
+$8
BUYNO+8.1%
#3Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 97.5¢
+$3
BUYNO+2.6%
#4Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 5, 2026 @ 96.8¢
+$3
BUYNO+3.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 4 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.