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Hugewinner

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-prt-esp-2026-07-06-more-markets
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$369K net profit from $2.5M of volume, with a 14.2% win rate across 218 trades, a 18% skill score, and a 15.0% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
18%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

14.2%

Trades

218

Net P&L

+$368.7K

Total Vol

$2.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 218 resolved trades (Beta(30, 141))

Cumulative Realized P&L

218 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 218 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -40.5%

Yes11W / 31L
26.2%

42 resolved positions

No2W / 1L
66.7%

3 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (218)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 218

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
BUYSWITZERLAND−$26.5K
Shares99,692.7
Total Traded$26,540.78
Avg Price0.266
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$23.9K
Shares67,417.5
Total Traded$23,933.13
Avg Price0.355
ClosedJul 11
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5
BUYOVER−$579
Shares25,666.2
Total Traded$578.88
Avg Price0.023
ClosedJul 11
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5
BUYOVER−$1,000
Shares11,111.1
Total Traded$999.99
Avg Price0.090
ClosedJul 11
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYUNITED STATES−$9.0K
Shares16,325.7
Total Traded$8,979.14
Avg Price0.550
ClosedJul 11
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5
BUYOVER−$300
Shares8,171.4
Total Traded$300.00
Avg Price0.037
ClosedJul 11
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5
BUYOVER−$86
Shares8,893.7
Total Traded$86.38
Avg Price0.010
ClosedJul 11
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
BUYYES+$12.6K
Shares31,594.4
Total Traded$18,877.61
Avg Price0.597
ClosedJul 10
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYSPAIN+$52.1K
Shares200,305.9
Total Traded$147,725.39
Avg Price0.737
ClosedJul 10
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$1.0K
Shares200,000.0
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.005
ClosedJul 8

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$809

Win / Loss

7W / 13L

Win Rate

35.0%

Avg Return

-40.5%

1–5 of 20

#1Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 26.6¢
$100
BUYSWITZERLAND-100.0%
#2Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 35.5¢
$100
BUYNORWAY-100.0%
#3United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5
Jul 11, 2026 @ 2.3¢
$100
BUYOVER-100.0%
#4United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5
Jul 11, 2026 @ 9.0¢
$100
BUYOVER-100.0%
#5United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 55.0¢
$100
BUYUNITED STATES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.