Skip to main content
Back to Leaderboard

luck00004

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$54K net profit from $216K of volume, with a 66.7% win rate across 21 trades, a 58% skill score, and a 25.2% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
58%
Confidence
81.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

66.7%

Trades

21

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$54.5K

Total Vol

$216.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 21 resolved trades (Beta(17, 12))

Cumulative Realized P&L

21 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 21 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -46.7%

Yes8W / 7L
53.3%

15 resolved positions

No6W / 0L
100.0%

6 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (21)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 21

BUYNO+$281
Shares2,423.0
Total Traded$2,141.99
Avg Price0.884
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$216
Shares9,000.0
Total Traded$8,783.99
Avg Price0.976
ClosedJul 11
BUYNO+$64
Shares3,574.0
Total Traded$3,509.67
Avg Price0.982
ClosedJul 10
BUYYES+$19.6K
Shares51,680.0
Total Traded$32,041.60
Avg Price0.620
ClosedJul 9
BUYNO+$736
Shares39,182.7
Total Traded$38,108.48
Avg Price0.973
ClosedJul 7
BUYNO+$249
Shares17,153.0
Total Traded$16,604.09
Avg Price0.968
ClosedJul 7
BUYNO+$1.0K
Shares28,248.0
Total Traded$26,548.10
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJul 7
BUYYES+$230
Shares8,500.0
Total Traded$858.50
Avg Price0.101
ClosedJul 6
BUYYES+$9.3K
Shares18,000.0
Total Traded$8,672.74
Avg Price0.482
ClosedJul 3
BUYYES$3.2K
Shares13,333.0
Total Traded$3,199.92
Avg Price0.240
ClosedJul 1

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$693

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+34.6%

15 of 20

#1Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 88.4¢
+$13
BUYNO+13.1%
#2Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 97.6¢
+$2
BUYNO+2.5%
#3Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 10, 2026 @ 98.2¢
+$2
BUYNO+1.8%
#4Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 62.0¢
+$61
BUYYES+61.3%
#5Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 97.3¢
+$3
BUYNO+2.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.