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123abc

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:fifwc-mex-eng-2026-07-05-more-markets
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$776K net loss from $3.6M of volume, with a 46.3% win rate across 201 trades, a 46% skill score, and a -21.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
46%
Confidence
12.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

46.3%

Trades

201

Net P&L

−$775.6K

Total Vol

$3.6M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 201 resolved trades (Beta(76, 91))

Cumulative Realized P&L

201 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 201 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -24.0%

Yes9W / 16L
36.0%

25 resolved positions

No21W / 14L
60.0%

35 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (201)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 201

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYCONOR MCGREGOR−$110.0K
Shares333,332.9
Total Traded$109,999.86
Avg Price0.330
ClosedJul 12
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
BUYNO−$23.9K
Shares61,644.4
Total Traded$23,850.27
Avg Price0.387
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)
BUYMARIO BAUTISTA+$25.4K
Shares43,084.5
Total Traded$17,664.65
Avg Price0.410
ClosedJul 12
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
BUYALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA−$1.5K
Shares2,488.4
Total Traded$1,468.17
Avg Price0.590
ClosedJul 12
Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini
BUYMATTEO BERRETTINI−$12.4K
Shares21,087.9
Total Traded$12,441.84
Avg Price0.590
ClosedJul 11
Norway vs. England: O/U 0.5
BUYUNDER−$576
Shares10,471.9
Total Traded$575.95
Avg Price0.055
ClosedJul 11
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$17.4K
Shares55,421.4
Total Traded$17,408.69
Avg Price0.314
ClosedJul 11
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
BUYNO+$4.9K
Shares33,754.8
Total Traded$28,838.37
Avg Price0.854
ClosedJul 10
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
BUYMOROCCO−$40.9K
Shares187,590.3
Total Traded$40,878.93
Avg Price0.218
ClosedJul 9
France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5
BUYUNDER−$1.1K
Shares4,256.2
Total Traded$1,117.25
Avg Price0.262
ClosedJul 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$176

Win / Loss

6W / 14L

Win Rate

30.0%

Avg Return

-8.8%

1–5 of 20

#1UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 33.0¢
$100
BUYCONOR MCGREGOR-100.0%
#2Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 38.7¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 41.0¢
+$144
BUYMARIO BAUTISTA+143.9%
#4Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Jul 12, 2026 @ 59.0¢
$100
BUYALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA-100.0%
#5Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Matteo Berrettini
Jul 11, 2026 @ 59.0¢
$100
BUYMATTEO BERRETTINI-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.