mentionmarket
Last updated Jul 14, 02:01 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$1.4M net loss from $11.5M of volume, with a 55.0% win rate across 200 trades, a 54% skill score, and a -12.3% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 54%
- Confidence
- 87.2%
Win Rate
55.0%
Trades
200
Net P&L
−$1.4M
Total Vol
$11.5M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 200 resolved trades (Beta(97, 82))
Cumulative Realized P&L
200 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 200 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -15.9%
31 resolved positions
36 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (200)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 200
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$151
Win / Loss
11W / 9L
Win Rate
55.0%
Avg Return
-7.6%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.