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FootballFan98

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsucl-slp-fcb1-2026-01-21
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$2M net loss from $18.1M of volume, with a 47.1% win rate across 210 trades, a 46% skill score, and a -11.2% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
46%
Confidence
21.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

47.1%

Trades

210

Net P&L

−$2.0M

Total Vol

$18.1M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 210 resolved trades (Beta(53, 61))

Cumulative Realized P&L

210 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 210 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +1.0%

Yes16W / 21L
43.2%

37 resolved positions

No19W / 26L
42.2%

45 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (210)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 210

Spread: Spain (-1.5)
BUYBELGIUM+$14.1K
Shares41,501.8
Total Traded$27,391.19
Avg Price0.660
ClosedJul 10
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYBELGIUM+$217.6K
Shares399,997.0
Total Traded$182,382.22
Avg Price0.456
ClosedJul 7
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$120.0K
Shares249,999.8
Total Traded$129,999.92
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 6
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
BUYCABO VERDE+$153.8K
Shares249,999.2
Total Traded$96,223.45
Avg Price0.385
ClosedJul 4
Spread: Spain (-1.5)
BUYAUSTRIA−$153.0K
Shares299,999.7
Total Traded$152,998.64
Avg Price0.510
ClosedJul 2
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
BUYNO+$497
Shares4,599.0
Total Traded$4,102.00
Avg Price0.892
ClosedJul 1
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance
BUYECUADOR−$77.1K
Shares206,466.4
Total Traded$77,054.09
Avg Price0.373
ClosedJul 1
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?
BUYYES−$83.0K
Shares199,999.6
Total Traded$82,987.65
Avg Price0.415
ClosedJun 30
Spread: France (-1.5)
BUYSWEDEN−$159.7K
Shares349,864.9
Total Traded$159,678.01
Avg Price0.456
ClosedJun 30
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
BUYNETHERLANDS−$48.0K
Shares79,999.9
Total Traded$47,999.96
Avg Price0.600
ClosedJun 30

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$869

Win / Loss

12W / 8L

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Return

+43.4%

1–5 of 20

#1Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Jul 10, 2026 @ 66.0¢
+$52
BUYBELGIUM+51.5%
#2United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
Jul 7, 2026 @ 45.6¢
+$119
BUYBELGIUM+119.3%
#3Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 6, 2026 @ 52.0¢
+$92
BUYENGLAND+92.3%
#4Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
Jul 4, 2026 @ 38.5¢
+$160
BUYCABO VERDE+159.8%
#5Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Jul 2, 2026 @ 51.0¢
$100
BUYAUSTRIA-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.