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euro-catcher

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$8K net loss from $275K of volume, with a 46.6% win rate across 234 trades, a 46% skill score, and a -3.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
46%
Confidence
12.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

46.6%

Trades

234

Net P&L

−$8.3K

Total Vol

$275.3K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 234 resolved trades (Beta(110, 128))

Cumulative Realized P&L

234 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 234 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +38.0%

Yes8W / 5L
61.5%

13 resolved positions

No4W / 13L
23.5%

17 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (234)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 234

BUYYES$2.6K
Shares6,961.0
Total Traded$2,619.93
Avg Price0.376
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$35
Shares125.0
Total Traded$35.00
Avg Price0.280
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$47
Shares173.0
Total Traded$46.99
Avg Price0.272
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$715
Shares10,639.0
Total Traded$6,163.95
Avg Price0.579
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$40
Shares707.0
Total Traded$367.64
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$441
Shares3,639.0
Total Traded$2,133.44
Avg Price0.586
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$9.3K
Shares24,034.0
Total Traded$3,989.64
Avg Price0.166
ClosedJul 12
BUYADRIAN YANEZ+$209
Shares2,568.0
Total Traded$2,359.17
Avg Price0.919
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$695
Shares2,899.0
Total Traded$695.19
Avg Price0.240
ClosedJul 12
BUYBRUTE+$454
Shares2,254.0
Total Traded$1,348.72
Avg Price0.598
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$972

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+48.6%

15 of 20

#1Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 37.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 28.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 27.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.9¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 52.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.