Skip to main content
Back to Leaderboard

Donkov

Last updated Jul 27, 04:03 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$345 net profit from $9K of volume, with a 68.4% win rate across 19 trades, a 55% skill score, and a 3.7% return on volume.

Only 19 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
55%
Confidence
67.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

68.4%

Trades

19

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$345

Total Vol

$9.2K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 19 resolved trades (Beta(13, 11))

Cumulative Realized P&L

19 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 19 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes13W / 6L
68.4%

19 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (19)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 19

BUYYES+$23
Shares26,757.9
Total Traded$310.39
Avg Price0.012
ClosedJul 25
BUYYES$1
Shares14,000.0
Total Traded$84.00
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 21
BUYYES$4
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$229.11
Avg Price0.076
ClosedJul 7
BUYYES+$172
Shares136,623.4
Total Traded$5,874.67
Avg Price0.043
ClosedJun 16
BUYYES$0
Shares4,000.0
Total Traded$30.40
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJun 13
BUYYES+$40
Shares10,026.3
Total Traded$751.97
Avg Price0.075
ClosedJun 9
BUYYES$6
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$27.00
Avg Price0.009
ClosedMay 22
BUYYES+$53
Shares30,777.3
Total Traded$1,107.98
Avg Price0.036
ClosedMay 15
BUYYES+$10
Shares10,031.3
Total Traded$60.19
Avg Price0.006
ClosedMay 14
BUYYES+$5
Shares7,000.0
Total Traded$49.00
Avg Price0.007
ClosedMay 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$120,394

Win / Loss

13W / 6L

Win Rate

68.4%

Avg Return

+6336.5%

15 of 19

#1Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 25, 2026 @ 1.2¢
+$8,521
BUYYES+8520.7%
#2Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 21, 2026 @ 0.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 7.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 16, 2026 @ 4.3¢
+$2,226
BUYYES+2225.6%
#5Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 13, 2026 @ 0.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 19 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.