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0xbba8...b4f8

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$6K net loss from $110K of volume, with a 18.2% win rate across 11 trades, a 41% skill score, and a -5.3% return on volume.

Only 11 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
41%
Confidence
25.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

18.2%

Trades

11

Small Sample

Net P&L

−$5.8K

Total Vol

$110.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 11 resolved trades (Beta(5, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

11 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 11 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +22.2%

Yes2W / 7L
22.2%

9 resolved positions

No0W / 1L
0.0%

1 resolved position

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (11)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 11

BUYYES+$21.5K
Shares99,999.7
Total Traded$16,695.45
Avg Price0.167
ClosedJul 12
BUYNORWAY$10.5K
Shares30,000.0
Total Traded$10,500.00
Avg Price0.350
ClosedJul 11
BUYYES+$16.4K
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$19,600.00
Avg Price0.490
ClosedNov 6
BUYYES$11.0K
Shares102,744.7
Total Traded$10,999.13
Avg Price0.107
ClosedNov 5
BUYYES$4.7K
Shares336,315.5
Total Traded$4,724.56
Avg Price0.014
ClosedNov 5
BUYYES$1.5K
Shares155,619.3
Total Traded$1,472.47
Avg Price0.009
ClosedNov 5
BUYYES$841
Shares43,985.3
Total Traded$840.73
Avg Price0.019
ClosedNov 4
BUYYES$8.3K
Shares118,008.1
Total Traded$8,295.50
Avg Price0.070
ClosedNov 4
BUYYES$2.4K
Shares28,235.6
Total Traded$2,379.67
Avg Price0.084
ClosedAug 31
BUYYES$1.0K
Shares156,948.4
Total Traded$25,862.90
Avg Price0.165
ClosedJul 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$297

Win / Loss

2W / 9L

Win Rate

18.2%

Avg Return

-27.0%

15 of 11

#1Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 16.7¢
+$499
BUYYES+499.0%
#2Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 35.0¢
$100
BUYNORWAY-100.0%
#3Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Nov 6, 2024 @ 49.0¢
+$104
BUYYES+104.1%
#4Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Nov 5, 2024 @ 10.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Nov 5, 2024 @ 1.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 11 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.