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letsfackingo

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$41 net profit from $519 of volume, with a 75.0% win rate across 4 trades, a 52% skill score, and a 7.9% return on volume.

Only 4 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
52%
Confidence
55.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

75.0%

Trades

4

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$41

Total Vol

$519

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 4 resolved trades (Beta(7, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

4 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

At least 5 resolved trades needed to show a rolling trend. This wallet has 4 resolved trades.

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -50.0%

Yes1W / 1L
50.0%

2 resolved positions

No2W / 0L
100.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (4)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

14 of 4

BUYNO+$22
Shares67.0
Total Traded$45.00
Avg Price0.672
ClosedJul 15
BUYNO+$5
Shares150.0
Total Traded$145.20
Avg Price0.968
ClosedJul 7
BUYYES+$32
Shares2,775.0
Total Traded$128.74
Avg Price0.046
ClosedJun 25
BUYYES$18
Shares4,259.9
Total Traded$200.00
Avg Price0.047
ClosedNov 17

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$2,008

Win / Loss

3W / 1L

Win Rate

75.0%

Avg Return

+501.9%

#1Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 67.2¢
+$49
BUYNO+48.8%
#2Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 96.8¢
+$3
BUYNO+3.3%
#3Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 25, 2026 @ 4.6¢
+$2,056
BUYYES+2055.5%
#4Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Nov 17, 2025 @ 4.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 4 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.