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DickTurbin

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Top activity:politicsdemocratic-presidential-nominee-2028
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$18K net profit from $196K of volume, with a 81.8% win rate across 11 trades, a 58% skill score, and a 9.2% return on volume.

Only 11 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
58%
Confidence
74.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

81.8%

Trades

11

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$18.1K

Total Vol

$196.2K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 11 resolved trades (Beta(10, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

11 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 11 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes9W / 2L
81.8%

11 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (11)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 11

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$12.6K
Shares212,708.6
Total Traded$106,354.08
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJun 5
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$85
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$249.99
Avg Price0.017
ClosedJun 2
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$48
Shares60,000.0
Total Traded$839.94
Avg Price0.014
ClosedMay 31
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$1.1K
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$249.99
Avg Price0.017
ClosedMay 20
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$628
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$312.48
Avg Price0.008
ClosedMay 4
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$355
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$313.04
Avg Price0.008
ClosedApr 26
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$33
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$257.58
Avg Price0.017
ClosedApr 13
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$1.1K
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$313.12
Avg Price0.008
ClosedApr 12
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$272
Shares40,449.3
Total Traded$316.52
Avg Price0.008
ClosedApr 8
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$297
Shares41,111.0
Total Traded$334.64
Avg Price0.008
ClosedApr 8

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$81,485

Win / Loss

9W / 2L

Win Rate

81.8%

Avg Return

+7407.7%

1–5 of 11

#1Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 5, 2026 @ 50.0¢
+$100
BUYYES+100.0%
#2Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 2, 2026 @ 1.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 31, 2026 @ 1.4¢
+$7,043
BUYYES+7043.4%
#4Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
May 20, 2026 @ 1.7¢
+$5,900
BUYYES+5900.2%
#5Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 4, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 11 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.