always...arty
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs
$206K net profit from $1M of volume, with a 24.1% win rate across 236 trades, a 25% skill score, and a 20.5% return on volume.
Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.
- Skill
- 25%
- Confidence
- 0%
Win Rate
24.1%
Trades
236
Net P&L
+$205.6K
Total Vol
$1.0M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 236 resolved trades (Beta(61, 184))
Cumulative Realized P&L
239 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 239 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -80.9%
225 resolved positions
14 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (239)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 239
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$16,500
Win / Loss
9W / 11L
Win Rate
45.0%
Avg Return
+825.0%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.