sirko133

Last updated Jul 14, 06:02 PM

Top activity:uefa-champions-league-winner

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Proven Edge

$90K net profit from $493K of volume, with a 90.4% win rate across 249 trades, a 87% skill score, and a 18.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 87%
Confidence: >99.9%

Share on X

Win Rate

90.4%

Trades

249

Net P&L

+$90.2K

Total Vol

$493.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 249 resolved trades (Beta(180, 26))

Cumulative Realized P&L

249 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 249 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +5.1%

Yes43W / 4L

91.5%

47 resolved positions

No38W / 6L

86.4%

44 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (249)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 249

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Arthur Fery vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5	BUYUNDER 3.5	61.9	$53.83	0.870	+$8	Jul 10
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUYOVER	50,000.0	$24,000.00	0.480	+$26.0K	Jul 7
Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUYYES	78,511.7	$25,123.73	0.320	+$53.4K	Jul 7
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUYYES	49,876.6	$20,449.41	0.410	+$29.4K	Jul 7
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	BUYPORTUGAL	125,640.5	$43,974.17	0.350	−$44.0K	Jul 6
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	BUYYES	10,402.8	$5,721.55	0.550	−$5.7K	Jul 5
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score	BUYYES	5,000.0	$2,650.00	0.530	+$2.3K	Jun 24
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUYOVER	4,856.9	$2,622.70	0.540	−$1.8K	Jun 24
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5	BUYUNDER	4,155.1	$2,825.45	0.680	+$1.3K	Jun 23
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5	BUYUNDER	5,331.6	$4,158.65	0.780	+$1.2K	Jun 23

Arthur Fery vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5

BUYUNDER 3.5+$8

Shares61.9

Total Traded$53.83

Avg Price0.870

ClosedJul 10

Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5

BUYOVER+$26.0K

Shares50,000.0

Total Traded$24,000.00

Avg Price0.480

ClosedJul 7

Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?

BUYYES+$53.4K

Shares78,511.7

Total Traded$25,123.73

Avg Price0.320

ClosedJul 7

Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score

BUYYES+$29.4K

Shares49,876.6

Total Traded$20,449.41

Avg Price0.410

ClosedJul 7

Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance

BUYPORTUGAL−$44.0K

Shares125,640.5

Total Traded$43,974.17

Avg Price0.350

ClosedJul 6

Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?

BUYYES−$5.7K

Shares10,402.8

Total Traded$5,721.55

Avg Price0.550

ClosedJul 5

Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score

BUYYES+$2.3K

Shares5,000.0

Total Traded$2,650.00

Avg Price0.530

ClosedJun 24

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5

BUYOVER−$1.8K

Shares4,856.9

Total Traded$2,622.70

Avg Price0.540

ClosedJun 24

Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5

BUYUNDER+$1.3K

Shares4,155.1

Total Traded$2,825.45

Avg Price0.680

ClosedJun 23

England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5

BUYUNDER+$1.2K

Shares5,331.6

Total Traded$4,158.65

Avg Price0.780

ClosedJun 23

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

$178

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

-8.9%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Arthur Fery vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Jul 10, 2026 @ 87.0¢BUYUNDER 3.5114.987.0¢$100+$15+14.9%

2Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Jul 7, 2026 @ 48.0¢BUYOVER208.348.0¢$100+$108+108.3%

3Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?Jul 7, 2026 @ 32.0¢BUYYES312.532.0¢$100+$213+212.5%

4Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to ScoreJul 7, 2026 @ 41.0¢BUYYES243.941.0¢$100+$144+143.9%

5Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceJul 6, 2026 @ 35.0¢BUYPORTUGAL285.735.0¢$100$100-100.0%

#1Arthur Fery vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5

Jul 10, 2026 @ 87.0¢

+$15

BUYUNDER 3.5+14.9%

#2Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5

Jul 7, 2026 @ 48.0¢

+$108

BUYOVER+108.3%

#3Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?

Jul 7, 2026 @ 32.0¢

+$213

BUYYES+212.5%

#4Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score

Jul 7, 2026 @ 41.0¢

+$144

BUYYES+143.9%

#5Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance

Jul 6, 2026 @ 35.0¢

$100

BUYPORTUGAL-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.