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R79dgahr

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$3K net profit from $1K of volume, with a 100.0% win rate across 3 trades, a 53% skill score, and a 232.8% return on volume.

Only 3 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
53%
Confidence
57.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

100.0%

Trades

3

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$2.7K

Total Vol

$1.2K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 3 resolved trades (Beta(7, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

3 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

At least 5 resolved trades needed to show a rolling trend. This wallet has 3 resolved trades.

Win Rate by Side

Yes3W / 0L
100.0%

3 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (3)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

13 of 3

BUYYES+$2.1K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$390.60
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 10
BUYYES+$109
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$390.60
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJun 21
BUYYES+$509
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$390.60
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJun 18

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$38,102

Win / Loss

3W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+12700.8%

#1Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 10, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#2Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 21, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#3Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 18, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 3 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.