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Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$39K net profit from $3.5M of volume, with a 49.8% win rate across 301 trades, a 49% skill score, and a 1.1% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
49%
Confidence
43%
Share on X

Win Rate

49.8%

Trades

301

Net P&L

+$38.9K

Total Vol

$3.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 301 resolved trades (Beta(147, 150))

Cumulative Realized P&L

301 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 301 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +21.6%

Yes44W / 27L
62.0%

71 resolved positions

No25W / 37L
40.3%

62 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (301)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 301

BUYYES+$28.5K
Shares178,864.8
Total Traded$69,578.22
Avg Price0.389
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$28.5K
Shares178,770.5
Total Traded$109,049.98
Avg Price0.610
ClosedJul 13
BUYARGENTINA$42.0K
Shares147,670.6
Total Traded$96,724.27
Avg Price0.655
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$1.5K
Shares5,152.5
Total Traded$4,131.22
Avg Price0.802
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$1.5K
Shares5,146.0
Total Traded$1,029.20
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$9.3K
Shares103,483.1
Total Traded$84,619.30
Avg Price0.818
ClosedJul 12
BUYSWITZERLAND+$41.8K
Shares147,670.5
Total Traded$50,938.33
Avg Price0.345
ClosedJul 12
BUYSWITZERLAND$1.5K
Shares7,752.7
Total Traded$4,690.17
Avg Price0.605
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$89.1K
Shares270,244.2
Total Traded$221,059.45
Avg Price0.818
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$38.2K
Shares121,584.2
Total Traded$24,560.01
Avg Price0.202
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$1,306

Win / Loss

10W / 10L

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Return

+65.3%

15 of 20

#1Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 38.9¢
+$157
BUYYES+157.1%
#2Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 61.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 65.5¢
$100
BUYARGENTINA-100.0%
#4Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 80.2¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 20.0¢
+$400
BUYYES+400.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.