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TB14

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$14K net profit from $324K of volume, with a 31.5% win rate across 200 trades, a 32% skill score, and a 4.3% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
32%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

31.5%

Trades

200

Net P&L

+$13.8K

Total Vol

$323.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 200 resolved trades (Beta(63, 135))

Cumulative Realized P&L

200 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 200 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +30.0%

Yes39W / 91L
30.0%

130 resolved positions

No0W / 2L
0.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (200)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 200

BUYENGLAND$620
Shares2,195.4
Total Traded$620.21
Avg Price0.282
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$2.7K
Shares5,472.1
Total Traded$2,681.97
Avg Price0.490
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$500
Shares1,063.8
Total Traded$500.00
Avg Price0.470
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$450
Shares9,640.1
Total Traded$449.99
Avg Price0.047
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$250
Shares7,590.0
Total Traded$249.99
Avg Price0.033
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$500
Shares2,319.0
Total Traded$500.00
Avg Price0.216
ClosedJul 12
BUYCONOR MCGREGOR$1,000
Shares3,448.3
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.290
ClosedJul 12
BUYARGENTINA$2.6K
Shares8,550.8
Total Traded$2,607.97
Avg Price0.305
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$5.3K
Shares11,421.3
Total Traded$5,349.20
Avg Price0.468
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$1.9K
Shares27,278.6
Total Traded$1,899.95
Avg Price0.070
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$1,177

Win / Loss

3W / 17L

Win Rate

15.0%

Avg Return

-58.9%

15 of 20

#1Spread: England (-1.5)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 28.2¢
$100
BUYENGLAND-100.0%
#2Harry Kane: 1+ goals
Jul 12, 2026 @ 49.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Erling Haaland: 1+ goals
Jul 12, 2026 @ 47.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 4.7¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 3.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.