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rustin

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sports2026-nhl-stanley-cup-champion
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$5.5M net loss from $7.3M of volume, with a 14.3% win rate across 530 trades, a 15% skill score, and a -75.5% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
15%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

14.3%

Trades

530

Net P&L

−$5.5M

Total Vol

$7.3M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 530 resolved trades (Beta(72, 400))

Cumulative Realized P&L

530 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 530 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -22.9%

Yes22W / 69L
24.2%

91 resolved positions

No16W / 18L
47.1%

34 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (530)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 530

Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$58
Shares274.7
Total Traded$58.13
Avg Price0.212
ClosedJul 13
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$3.1K
Shares15,000.0
Total Traded$3,150.00
Avg Price0.210
ClosedJul 13
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
BUYMOROCCO−$2.6K
Shares12,499.9
Total Traded$2,624.98
Avg Price0.210
ClosedJul 9
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$1.3K
Shares788,419.4
Total Traded$5,794.88
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 7
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
BUYYES−$18.4K
Shares44,999.8
Total Traded$18,449.91
Avg Price0.410
ClosedJul 7
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
BUYCOLOMBIA−$18.0K
Shares30,000.0
Total Traded$18,000.00
Avg Price0.600
ClosedJul 7
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYMEXICO−$22.7K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$22,749.95
Avg Price0.455
ClosedJul 6
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
BUYYES−$15.5K
Shares49,999.9
Total Traded$15,499.97
Avg Price0.310
ClosedJul 6
Mexico vs. England: O/U 0.5
BUYUNDER−$1.5K
Shares14,998.9
Total Traded$1,499.89
Avg Price0.100
ClosedJul 6
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$212
Shares504.9
Total Traded$292.86
Avg Price0.580
ClosedJul 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$12,197

Win / Loss

5W / 15L

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Return

+609.9%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 21.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 21.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
Jul 9, 2026 @ 21.0¢
$100
BUYMOROCCO-100.0%
#4Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$13,505
BUYYES+13505.4%
#5Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 41.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.