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lookaon

Last updated Jul 14, 08:02 PM

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$418K net profit from $4.1M of volume, with a 84.2% win rate across 76 trades, a 79% skill score, and a 10.2% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
79%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

84.2%

Trades

76

Net P&L

+$418.0K

Total Vol

$4.1M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 76 resolved trades (Beta(61, 16))

Cumulative Realized P&L

76 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 76 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +0.0%

Yes10W / 5L
66.7%

15 resolved positions

No4W / 2L
66.7%

6 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (76)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 76

BUYNO+$25.0K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$75,000.00
Avg Price0.750
ClosedJul 12
BUYOVER+$1.2K
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$8,849.99
Avg Price0.885
ClosedJul 11
BUYOVER+$957
Shares3,189.0
Total Traded$2,232.33
Avg Price0.700
ClosedJul 10
BUYYES+$10.0K
Shares20,000.0
Total Traded$10,000.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 10
BUYOVER+$37
Shares374.4
Total Traded$336.95
Avg Price0.900
ClosedJul 10
BUYNO+$7.9K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$42,124.96
Avg Price0.843
ClosedJul 10
BUYOVER+$26.0K
Shares99,999.6
Total Traded$73,999.70
Avg Price0.740
ClosedJul 9
BUYOVER+$311
Shares1,946.4
Total Traded$1,634.98
Avg Price0.840
ClosedJul 9
BUYOVER+$13.0K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$86,998.26
Avg Price0.870
ClosedJul 9
BUYALEXANDER ZVEREV+$8.8K
Shares73,183.1
Total Traded$64,401.17
Avg Price0.880
ClosedJul 8

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$490

Win / Loss

19W / 1L

Win Rate

95.0%

Avg Return

+24.5%

15 of 20

#1Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 75.0¢
+$33
BUYNO+33.3%
#2Norway vs. England: O/U 0.5
Jul 11, 2026 @ 88.5¢
+$13
BUYOVER+13.0%
#3Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5
Jul 10, 2026 @ 70.0¢
+$43
BUYOVER+42.9%
#4Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score
Jul 10, 2026 @ 50.0¢
+$100
BUYYES+100.0%
#5Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5
Jul 10, 2026 @ 90.0¢
+$11
BUYOVER+11.1%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.