risk-manager

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Top activity:politics democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$12K net profit from $53K of volume, with a 80.0% win rate across 5 trades, a 51% skill score, and a 22.4% return on volume.

Only 5 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill: 51%
Confidence: 53.6%

Share on X

Win Rate

80.0%

Trades

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$11.9K

Total Vol

$53.2K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 5 resolved trades (Beta(7, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

5 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 5 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes4W / 1L

80.0%

5 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (5)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–5 of 5

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUYYES	267,260.7	$2,137.82	0.008	+$544	Jul 14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYYES	45,000.0	$15,884.95	0.353	+$72	Jul 5
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYYES	46,627.1	$9,387.53	0.201	−$278	Jul 4
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUYYES	282,653.8	$23,195.98	0.082	+$11.2K	May 18
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUYYES	432,942.1	$2,597.22	0.006	+$403	Apr 13

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

BUYYES+$544

Shares267,260.7

Total Traded$2,137.82

Avg Price0.008

ClosedJul 14

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYYES+$72

Shares45,000.0

Total Traded$15,884.95

Avg Price0.353

ClosedJul 5

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYYES−$278

Shares46,627.1

Total Traded$9,387.53

Avg Price0.201

ClosedJul 4

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

BUYYES+$11.2K

Shares282,653.8

Total Traded$23,195.98

Avg Price0.082

ClosedMay 18

Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

BUYYES+$403

Shares432,942.1

Total Traded$2,597.22

Avg Price0.006

ClosedApr 13

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$30,173

Win / Loss

4W / 1L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+6034.6%

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Jul 14, 2026 @ 0.8¢BUYYES12,501.60.8¢$100+$12,402+12401.6%

2Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 5, 2026 @ 35.3¢BUYYES283.335.3¢$100+$183+183.3%

3Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 4, 2026 @ 20.1¢BUYYES496.720.1¢$100$100-100.0%

4Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?May 18, 2026 @ 8.2¢BUYYES1,218.58.2¢$100+$1,119+1118.5%

5Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Apr 13, 2026 @ 0.6¢BUYYES16,669.40.6¢$100+$16,569+16569.4%

#1Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Jul 14, 2026 @ 0.8¢

+$12,402

BUYYES+12401.6%

#2Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 5, 2026 @ 35.3¢

+$183

BUYYES+183.3%

#3Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 4, 2026 @ 20.1¢

$100

BUYYES-100.0%

#4Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

May 18, 2026 @ 8.2¢

+$1,119

BUYYES+1118.5%

#5Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Apr 13, 2026 @ 0.6¢

+$16,569

BUYYES+16569.4%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 5 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.