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takeormake

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsufc-max1-con-2026-07-11
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$632K net loss from $838K of volume, with a 20.9% win rate across 215 trades, a 22% skill score, and a -75.4% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
22%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

20.9%

Trades

215

Net P&L

−$631.6K

Total Vol

$837.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 215 resolved trades (Beta(49, 174))

Cumulative Realized P&L

215 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 215 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +0.0%

Yes5W / 45L
10.0%

50 resolved positions

No1W / 9L
10.0%

10 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (215)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 215

Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
BUYCHICAGO SKY−$543
Shares3,195.6
Total Traded$543.24
Avg Price0.170
ClosedJul 13
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$785
Shares4,949.9
Total Traded$784.51
Avg Price0.158
ClosedJul 13
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
BUYDALLAS WINGS+$16
Shares1,100.3
Total Traded$1,084.61
Avg Price0.986
ClosedJul 13
Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics
BUYSEATTLE STORM−$17
Shares50.0
Total Traded$16.65
Avg Price0.333
ClosedJul 12
Games Total: O/U 3.5
BUYUNDER−$5
Shares30.0
Total Traded$4.80
Avg Price0.160
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5
BUYOVER−$272
Shares3,278.8
Total Traded$271.75
Avg Price0.083
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)
BUYBRANDON ROYVAL+$3.2K
Shares7,359.9
Total Traded$4,114.35
Avg Price0.559
ClosedJul 12
Games Total: O/U 4.5
BUYOVER+$14
Shares257.2
Total Traded$242.67
Avg Price0.944
ClosedJul 12
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$65
Shares210.0
Total Traded$64.58
Avg Price0.308
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5
BUYOVER+$224
Shares649.0
Total Traded$425.15
Avg Price0.655
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$809

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-40.4%

1–5 of 20

#1Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
Jul 13, 2026 @ 17.0¢
$100
BUYCHICAGO SKY-100.0%
#2Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 15.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings
Jul 13, 2026 @ 98.6¢
+$1
BUYDALLAS WINGS+1.4%
#4Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics
Jul 12, 2026 @ 33.3¢
$100
BUYSEATTLE STORM-100.0%
#5Games Total: O/U 3.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 16.0¢
$100
BUYUNDER-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.