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Romie-Futch

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:culturesea-cre-mil-2026-03-01
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Wins Often, Loses Bigger

$612 net loss from $25K of volume, with a 81.3% win rate across 193 trades, a 78% skill score, and a -2.4% return on volume.

Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.

Skill
78%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

81.3%

Trades

193

Net P&L

−$612

Total Vol

$25.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 193 resolved trades (Beta(83, 24))

Cumulative Realized P&L

193 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 193 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -18.8%

Yes25W / 14L
64.1%

39 resolved positions

No58W / 12L
82.9%

70 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (193)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 193

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
BUYLIGHTNING+$116
Shares341.0
Total Traded$225.06
Avg Price0.660
ClosedMar 8
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
BUYYES+$9
Shares156.0
Total Traded$147.27
Avg Price0.944
ClosedMar 8
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
BUYNO+$4
Shares103.0
Total Traded$98.67
Avg Price0.958
ClosedMar 8
Will PH win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
BUYNO+$21
Shares210.7
Total Traded$189.60
Avg Price0.900
ClosedMar 8
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
BUYNO+$7
Shares195.0
Total Traded$188.15
Avg Price0.965
ClosedMar 8
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY−$65
Shares98.0
Total Traded$64.58
Avg Price0.659
ClosedMar 8
Nets vs. Pistons
BUYPISTONS−$528
Shares592.0
Total Traded$527.93
Avg Price0.892
ClosedMar 7
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?
BUYNO+$13
Shares255.0
Total Traded$228.19
Avg Price0.895
ClosedMar 7
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
BUYOVER+$8
Shares20.0
Total Traded$12.39
Avg Price0.620
ClosedMar 7
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
BUYNO+$17
Shares308.0
Total Traded$287.44
Avg Price0.933
ClosedMar 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$15

Win / Loss

16W / 4L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

-0.8%

1–5 of 20

#1Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
Mar 8, 2026 @ 66.0¢
+$52
BUYLIGHTNING+51.5%
#2Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
Mar 8, 2026 @ 94.4¢
+$6
BUYYES+5.9%
#3Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?
Mar 8, 2026 @ 95.8¢
+$4
BUYNO+4.4%
#4Will PH win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
Mar 8, 2026 @ 90.0¢
+$11
BUYNO+11.1%
#5Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Mar 8, 2026 @ 96.5¢
+$4
BUYNO+3.7%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.