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hedgev...net1

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$8K net loss from $535K of volume, with a 56.1% win rate across 214 trades, a 55% skill score, and a -1.4% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
55%
Confidence
94.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

56.1%

Trades

214

Net P&L

−$7.6K

Total Vol

$534.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 214 resolved trades (Beta(120, 97))

Cumulative Realized P&L

214 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 214 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -24.7%

Yes26W / 39L
40.0%

65 resolved positions

No55W / 30L
64.7%

85 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (214)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 214

BUYNO+$2.1K
Shares9,284.9
Total Traded$7,205.96
Avg Price0.776
ClosedJul 12
BUYUNDER+$287
Shares700.0
Total Traded$412.56
Avg Price0.589
ClosedJul 12
BUYUNDER+$13
Shares3,917.9
Total Traded$3,758.34
Avg Price0.959
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$7.8K
Shares10,849.9
Total Traded$7,765.92
Avg Price0.716
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$73
Shares125.0
Total Traded$52.50
Avg Price0.420
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$7
Shares75.0
Total Traded$6.75
Avg Price0.090
ClosedJul 12
BUYARGENTINA+$920
Shares5,588.0
Total Traded$4,218.94
Avg Price0.755
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$36
Shares7,033.4
Total Traded$6,920.90
Avg Price0.984
ClosedJul 12
BUYUNDER+$76
Shares349.9
Total Traded$274.29
Avg Price0.784
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$86
Shares150.0
Total Traded$64.50
Avg Price0.430
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$800

Win / Loss

16W / 4L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+40.0%

15 of 20

#1Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 77.6¢
+$29
BUYNO+28.8%
#2Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 58.9¢
+$70
BUYUNDER+69.7%
#3Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 95.9¢
+$4
BUYUNDER+4.2%
#4Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 71.6¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Norway vs. England: Draw at halftime?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 42.0¢
+$138
BUYYES+138.1%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.