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ebbegah

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:world-cup-team-to-advance-to-knockout-stages
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$551 net loss from $6K of volume, with a 37.0% win rate across 27 trades, a 46% skill score, and a -8.7% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
46%
Confidence
36.4%
Share on X

Win Rate

37.0%

Trades

27

Medium Sample

Net P&L

−$551

Total Vol

$6.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 27 resolved trades (Beta(9, 10))

Cumulative Realized P&L

27 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 27 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +3.3%

Yes5W / 10L
33.3%

15 resolved positions

No3W / 7L
30.0%

10 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (27)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 27

Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$528
Shares1,271.0
Total Traded$528.37
Avg Price0.416
ClosedJul 13
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$350
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$650.00
Avg Price0.650
ClosedJul 4
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$203
Shares2,235.9
Total Traded$2,033.32
Avg Price0.909
ClosedJun 28
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$227
Shares1,675.7
Total Traded$1,448.57
Avg Price0.864
ClosedJun 27
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?
BUYNO+$8
Shares100.0
Total Traded$91.90
Avg Price0.919
ClosedMay 28
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?
BUYNO−$9
Shares25.1
Total Traded$9.00
Avg Price0.359
ClosedMay 16
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?
BUYYES−$7
Shares306.8
Total Traded$7.36
Avg Price0.024
ClosedMay 16
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
BUYNO−$17
Shares89.5
Total Traded$17.00
Avg Price0.190
ClosedMay 12
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce
BUYFENERBAHCE+$224
Shares440.0
Total Traded$215.60
Avg Price0.490
ClosedMay 9
Will "El Mal" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars?
BUYNO−$28
Shares112.0
Total Traded$28.00
Avg Price0.250
ClosedMay 2

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$220

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-11.0%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 41.6¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 65.0¢
+$54
BUYNO+53.8%
#3Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 28, 2026 @ 90.9¢
+$10
BUYYES+10.0%
#4Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 27, 2026 @ 86.4¢
+$16
BUYYES+15.7%
#5Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?
May 28, 2026 @ 91.9¢
+$9
BUYNO+8.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.