ImJustKen

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politics us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$249K net profit from $1.3M of volume, with a 45.8% win rate across 201 trades, a 45% skill score, and a 18.7% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 45%
Confidence: 9.1%

Share on X

Win Rate

45.8%

Trades

201

Net P&L

+$249.0K

Total Vol

$1.3M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 201 resolved trades (Beta(86, 105))

Cumulative Realized P&L

201 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 201 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -6.9%

Yes56W / 74L

43.1%

130 resolved positions

No35W / 35L

50.0%

70 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (201)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 201

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUYYES	34,077.0	$11,456.70	0.336	+$374	Jul 10
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	BUYNO	14,538.8	$9,885.82	0.680	+$4.7K	Jul 10
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUYNO	1,573.4	$959.77	0.610	−$960	Jul 10
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?	BUYYES	7,500.0	$6,450.00	0.860	+$1.1K	Jul 9
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?	BUYNO	500.0	$439.99	0.880	+$60	Jul 9
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?	BUYYES	7,498.4	$6,373.67	0.850	+$1.1K	Jul 9
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?	BUYYES	4,305.0	$1,793.10	0.417	+$1.9K	Jul 9
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?	BUYYES	12,655.3	$9,953.68	0.787	+$2.7K	Jul 9
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	BUYNO	5,051.2	$4,450.09	0.881	−$352	Jul 4
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?	BUYNO	19,350.4	$13,229.71	0.684	+$5.9K	Jul 4

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

BUYYES+$374

Shares34,077.0

Total Traded$11,456.70

Avg Price0.336

ClosedJul 10

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?

BUYNO+$4.7K

Shares14,538.8

Total Traded$9,885.82

Avg Price0.680

ClosedJul 10

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

BUYNO−$960

Shares1,573.4

Total Traded$959.77

Avg Price0.610

ClosedJul 10

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?

BUYYES+$1.1K

Shares7,500.0

Total Traded$6,450.00

Avg Price0.860

ClosedJul 9

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

BUYNO+$60

Shares500.0

Total Traded$439.99

Avg Price0.880

ClosedJul 9

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 17?

BUYYES+$1.1K

Shares7,498.4

Total Traded$6,373.67

Avg Price0.850

ClosedJul 9

Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?

BUYYES+$1.9K

Shares4,305.0

Total Traded$1,793.10

Avg Price0.417

ClosedJul 9

Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?

BUYYES+$2.7K

Shares12,655.3

Total Traded$9,953.68

Avg Price0.787

ClosedJul 9

Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?

BUYNO−$352

Shares5,051.2

Total Traded$4,450.09

Avg Price0.881

ClosedJul 4

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

BUYNO+$5.9K

Shares19,350.4

Total Traded$13,229.71

Avg Price0.684

ClosedJul 4

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$3,712

Win / Loss

16W / 4L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+185.6%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Jul 10, 2026 @ 33.6¢BUYYES297.433.6¢$100+$197+197.4%

2Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Jul 10, 2026 @ 68.0¢BUYNO147.168.0¢$100+$47+47.1%

3Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Jul 10, 2026 @ 61.0¢BUYNO163.961.0¢$100$100-100.0%

4Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?Jul 9, 2026 @ 86.0¢BUYYES116.386.0¢$100+$16+16.3%

5OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?Jul 9, 2026 @ 88.0¢BUYNO113.688.0¢$100+$14+13.6%

#1Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Jul 10, 2026 @ 33.6¢

+$197

BUYYES+197.4%

#2Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?

Jul 10, 2026 @ 68.0¢

+$47

BUYNO+47.1%

#3Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Jul 10, 2026 @ 61.0¢

$100

BUYNO-100.0%

#4Will Graham Platner drop out by July 31?

Jul 9, 2026 @ 86.0¢

+$16

BUYYES+16.3%

#5OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

Jul 9, 2026 @ 88.0¢

+$14

BUYNO+13.6%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.