defini...tBot
Last updated Jul 14, 08:02 PM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$1.9M net loss from $18.1M of volume, with a 45.1% win rate across 222 trades, a 45% skill score, and a -10.7% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 45%
- Confidence
- 6%
Win Rate
45.1%
Trades
222
Net P&L
−$1.9M
Total Vol
$18.1M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 222 resolved trades (Beta(99, 122))
Cumulative Realized P&L
222 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 222 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +41.4%
76 resolved positions
82 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (222)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 222
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$23,571
Win / Loss
9W / 11L
Win Rate
45.0%
Avg Return
+1178.6%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.