stubblyballs

Last updated Jul 15, 08:02 PM

Top activity:sports fifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14-more-markets

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Big Winner, Small Sample

$606K net profit from $403K of volume, with a 83.3% win rate across 6 trades, a 56% skill score, and a 150.2% return on volume.

Only 6 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill: 56%
Confidence: 69.6%

Share on X

Win Rate

83.3%

Trades

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$605.7K

Total Vol

$403.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 6 resolved trades (Beta(9, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

Most activity concentrated recently — trend may not reflect long-term performance.

6 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 6 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +0.0%

Yes1W / 0L

100.0%

1 resolved position

No1W / 0L

100.0%

1 resolved position

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (6)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–6 of 6

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUYUNDER	200,000.0	$99,000.00	0.495	+$101.0K	Jul 15
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?	BUYYES	208,820.9	$61,080.11	0.293	+$147.7K	Jul 15
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score	BUYNO	149,998.6	$59,999.43	0.400	+$90.0K	Jul 15
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	BUYSPAIN	449,999.9	$182,124.87	0.405	+$267.9K	Jul 15
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUYSPAIN	283.7	$30.50	0.108	+$253	Jul 15
France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5	BUYUNDER	15,431.7	$1,118.80	0.072	−$1.1K	Jul 14

France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5

BUYUNDER+$101.0K

Shares200,000.0

Total Traded$99,000.00

Avg Price0.495

ClosedJul 15

Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?

BUYYES+$147.7K

Shares208,820.9

Total Traded$61,080.11

Avg Price0.293

ClosedJul 15

France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score

BUYNO+$90.0K

Shares149,998.6

Total Traded$59,999.43

Avg Price0.400

ClosedJul 15

France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

BUYSPAIN+$267.9K

Shares449,999.9

Total Traded$182,124.87

Avg Price0.405

ClosedJul 15

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

BUYSPAIN+$253

Shares283.7

Total Traded$30.50

Avg Price0.108

ClosedJul 15

France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5

BUYUNDER−$1.1K

Shares15,431.7

Total Traded$1,118.80

Avg Price0.072

ClosedJul 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$1,371

Win / Loss

5W / 1L

Win Rate

83.3%

Avg Return

+228.5%

1–5 of 6

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5Jul 15, 2026 @ 49.5¢BUYUNDER202.049.5¢$100+$102+102.0%

2Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?Jul 15, 2026 @ 29.3¢BUYYES341.929.3¢$100+$242+241.9%

3France vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreJul 15, 2026 @ 40.0¢BUYNO250.040.0¢$100+$150+150.0%

4France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceJul 15, 2026 @ 40.5¢BUYSPAIN247.140.5¢$100+$147+147.1%

5Spread: Spain (-1.5)Jul 15, 2026 @ 10.8¢BUYSPAIN930.210.8¢$100+$830+830.2%

#1France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5

Jul 15, 2026 @ 49.5¢

+$102

BUYUNDER+102.0%

#2Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?

Jul 15, 2026 @ 29.3¢

+$242

BUYYES+241.9%

#3France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score

Jul 15, 2026 @ 40.0¢

+$150

BUYNO+150.0%

#4France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

Jul 15, 2026 @ 40.5¢

+$147

BUYSPAIN+147.1%

#5Spread: Spain (-1.5)

Jul 15, 2026 @ 10.8¢

+$830

BUYSPAIN+830.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 6 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.