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ipop00

Last updated Jul 19, 07:02 PM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$96K net profit from $109K of volume, with a 100.0% win rate across 3 trades, a 54% skill score, and a 87.8% return on volume.

Only 3 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
54%
Confidence
61.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

100.0%

Trades

3

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$95.6K

Total Vol

$108.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 3 resolved trades (Beta(7, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

3 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

At least 5 resolved trades needed to show a rolling trend. This wallet has 3 resolved trades.

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +0.0%

Yes2W / 0L
100.0%

2 resolved positions

No1W / 0L
100.0%

1 resolved position

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (3)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

13 of 3

BUYNO+$49.1K
Shares161,997.9
Total Traded$95,416.78
Avg Price0.589
ClosedJul 19
BUYYES+$3.0K
Shares30,000.0
Total Traded$12,030.00
Avg Price0.401
ClosedJul 19
BUYYES+$43.5K
Shares89,997.9
Total Traded$1,499.91
Avg Price0.017
ClosedJul 19

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$6,119

Win / Loss

3W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+2039.8%

#1Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 19, 2026 @ 58.9¢
+$70
BUYNO+69.8%
#2Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 19, 2026 @ 40.1¢
+$149
BUYYES+149.4%
#3Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 19, 2026 @ 1.7¢
+$5,900
BUYYES+5900.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 3 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.