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EP10

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsmicrostrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$22K net loss from $248K of volume, with a 63.0% win rate across 184 trades, a 62% skill score, and a -8.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
62%
Confidence
99.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

63.0%

Trades

184

Net P&L

−$22.1K

Total Vol

$248.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 184 resolved trades (Beta(84, 53))

Cumulative Realized P&L

184 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 184 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +3.8%

Yes55W / 23L
70.5%

78 resolved positions

No32W / 16L
66.7%

48 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (184)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 184

Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
BUYYES+$19
Shares750.0
Total Traded$101.46
Avg Price0.135
ClosedJul 11
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
BUYNO+$10
Shares5,000.0
Total Traded$4,985.00
Avg Price0.997
ClosedJul 9
Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance
BUYPARAGUAY−$504
Shares6,300.0
Total Traded$504.00
Avg Price0.080
ClosedJul 4
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
BUYYES+$3
Shares173.3
Total Traded$81.45
Avg Price0.470
ClosedJul 3
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$714
Shares142,857.1
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 1
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
BUYNO−$500
Shares8,196.7
Total Traded$499.99
Avg Price0.061
ClosedJun 30
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?
BUYYES−$200
Shares5,406.5
Total Traded$200.00
Avg Price0.037
ClosedJun 22
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?
BUYYES−$300
Shares300,000.0
Total Traded$300.00
Avg Price0.001
ClosedJun 21
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?
BUYYES+$30
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$9,960.00
Avg Price0.996
ClosedJun 18
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?
BUYYES−$220
Shares109,974.6
Total Traded$219.95
Avg Price0.002
ClosedJun 18

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$13,741

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

+687.1%

1–5 of 20

#1Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 13.5¢
+$639
BUYYES+639.2%
#2Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 99.7¢
+$0
BUYNO+0.3%
#3Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance
Jul 4, 2026 @ 8.0¢
$100
BUYPARAGUAY-100.0%
#4Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Jul 3, 2026 @ 47.0¢
+$113
BUYYES+112.8%
#5Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,186
BUYYES+14185.7%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.