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LUCKORSKILL
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Lastin...sert

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicskharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Wins Often, Loses Bigger

$25K net loss from $1.3M of volume, with a 84.6% win rate across 201 trades, a 81% skill score, and a -1.9% return on volume.

Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.

Skill
81%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

84.6%

Trades

201

Net P&L

−$25.4K

Total Vol

$1.3M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 201 resolved trades (Beta(126, 30))

Cumulative Realized P&L

201 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 201 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -25.8%

Yes11W / 7L
61.1%

18 resolved positions

No159W / 24L
86.9%

183 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (201)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 201

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
BUYNO+$19.1K
Shares69,999.5
Total Traded$45,752.18
Avg Price0.654
ClosedJul 8
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
BUYNO+$900
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$1,600.00
Avg Price0.640
ClosedJul 8
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
BUYYES+$950
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$1,550.00
Avg Price0.620
ClosedJul 8
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$78
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$2,422.50
Avg Price0.969
ClosedJul 8
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$135
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$2,365.00
Avg Price0.946
ClosedJul 8
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$70
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$2,430.00
Avg Price0.972
ClosedJul 8
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
BUYNO+$2
Shares13.2
Total Traded$11.52
Avg Price0.870
ClosedJul 1
Iran leadership change by June 30?
BUYNO+$2.5K
Shares15,099.8
Total Traded$12,590.68
Avg Price0.834
ClosedJul 1
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
BUYNO−$1.2K
Shares2,500.1
Total Traded$1,220.11
Avg Price0.488
ClosedJul 1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
BUYNO+$1.7K
Shares5,000.0
Total Traded$3,300.00
Avg Price0.660
ClosedJul 1

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$225

Win / Loss

18W / 2L

Win Rate

90.0%

Avg Return

+11.3%

1–5 of 20

#1Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 65.4¢
+$53
BUYNO+53.0%
#2Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 64.0¢
+$56
BUYNO+56.3%
#3Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 62.0¢
+$61
BUYYES+61.3%
#4Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 96.9¢
+$3
BUYNO+3.2%
#5Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 94.6¢
+$6
BUYNO+5.7%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.