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0x8ae0...b4ce

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$91 net profit from $20K of volume, with a 38.5% win rate across 13 trades, a 39% skill score, and a 0.5% return on volume.

Only 13 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
39%
Confidence
14.1%
Share on X

Win Rate

38.5%

Trades

13

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$91

Total Vol

$20.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 13 resolved trades (Beta(8, 13))

Cumulative Realized P&L

13 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 13 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -16.7%

Yes3W / 6L
33.3%

9 resolved positions

No2W / 2L
50.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (13)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 13

BUYYES$636
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$636.00
Avg Price0.212
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$52
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$52.00
Avg Price0.052
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$2.0K
Shares1,055,417.9
Total Traded$11,652.87
Avg Price0.011
ClosedJul 2
BUYYES+$60
Shares59,996.5
Total Traded$299.98
Avg Price0.005
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES$37
Shares37,000.0
Total Traded$962.00
Avg Price0.026
ClosedJun 29
BUYNO$163
Shares1,900.0
Total Traded$163.49
Avg Price0.086
ClosedJun 28
BUYYES$450
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$2,700.00
Avg Price0.054
ClosedJun 27
BUYYES$85
Shares1,332.6
Total Traded$85.29
Avg Price0.064
ClosedJun 17
BUYNO$900
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$900.00
Avg Price0.900
ClosedJun 17
BUYYES$8
Shares2,676.5
Total Traded$8.03
Avg Price0.003
ClosedJun 17

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$32,154

Win / Loss

5W / 8L

Win Rate

38.5%

Avg Return

+2473.4%

15 of 13

#1Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 21.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 5.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 2, 2026 @ 1.1¢
+$8,957
BUYYES+8957.2%
#4Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.5¢
+$19,900
BUYYES+19900.0%
#5Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 29, 2026 @ 2.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 13 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.