Skip to main content
LUCKORSKILL
Back to Leaderboard

AMX13

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicswill-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$2K net profit from $357K of volume, with a 76.3% win rate across 203 trades, a 73% skill score, and a 0.6% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
73%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

76.3%

Trades

203

Net P&L

+$2.2K

Total Vol

$356.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 203 resolved trades (Beta(50, 19))

Cumulative Realized P&L

203 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 203 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -15.7%

Yes41W / 18L
69.5%

59 resolved positions

No92W / 16L
85.2%

108 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (203)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 203

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES−$39
Shares500.0
Total Traded$100.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 4
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
BUYNO+$773
Shares19,016.0
Total Traded$18,242.94
Avg Price0.959
ClosedJul 4
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES−$38
Shares303.0
Total Traded$100.00
Avg Price0.330
ClosedJul 4
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
BUYYES+$585
Shares1,485.0
Total Traded$900.00
Avg Price0.606
ClosedJun 18
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
BUYNO+$54
Shares2,000.0
Total Traded$1,945.96
Avg Price0.973
ClosedJun 2
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
BUYNO+$523
Shares3,736.0
Total Traded$3,212.95
Avg Price0.860
ClosedJun 2
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
BUYNO+$994
Shares14,429.9
Total Traded$13,435.92
Avg Price0.931
ClosedMay 4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
BUYNO−$5.0K
Shares5,061.7
Total Traded$5,000.00
Avg Price0.988
ClosedApr 7
Netanyahu out by March 31?
BUYNO+$48
Shares3,212.1
Total Traded$3,163.89
Avg Price0.985
ClosedApr 5
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
BUYNO+$13
Shares1,013.2
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.987
ClosedApr 3

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$357

Win / Loss

15W / 5L

Win Rate

75.0%

Avg Return

-17.8%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 20.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 95.9¢
+$4
BUYNO+4.2%
#3Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 33.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Jun 18, 2026 @ 60.6¢
+$65
BUYYES+65.0%
#5Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Jun 2, 2026 @ 97.3¢
+$3
BUYNO+2.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.