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RJW1

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-mex-eng-2026-07-05-more-markets
Edge

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$1.2M net profit from $8M of volume, with a 48.3% win rate across 147 trades, a 48% skill score, and a 14.6% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill
48%
Confidence
34.6%
Share on X

Win Rate

48.3%

Trades

147

Net P&L

+$1.2M

Total Vol

$8.0M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 147 resolved trades (Beta(60, 65))

Cumulative Realized P&L

147 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 147 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -34.9%

Yes31W / 33L
48.4%

64 resolved positions

No5W / 1L
83.3%

6 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (147)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 147

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
BUYNO+$241.9K
Shares423,836.5
Total Traded$181,982.66
Avg Price0.429
ClosedJul 12
Will England win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$212.2K
Shares409,794.0
Total Traded$212,167.17
Avg Price0.518
ClosedJul 11
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
BUYUNDER−$151.8K
Shares329,995.3
Total Traded$151,797.84
Avg Price0.460
ClosedJul 10
Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5
BUYUNDER−$46.5K
Shares149,998.4
Total Traded$46,499.49
Avg Price0.310
ClosedJul 10
Will France win on 2026-07-09?
BUYYES+$112.4K
Shares289,998.2
Total Traded$177,613.76
Avg Price0.612
ClosedJul 9
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?
BUYYES−$12.1K
Shares109,999.4
Total Traded$12,099.93
Avg Price0.110
ClosedJul 9
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
BUYYES−$162.1K
Shares379,999.5
Total Traded$162,062.95
Avg Price0.426
ClosedJul 7
Egypt leading at halftime?
BUYYES+$228.3K
Shares253,332.1
Total Traded$24,999.83
Avg Price0.099
ClosedJul 7
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?
BUYYES−$121.1K
Shares419,997.5
Total Traded$121,089.48
Avg Price0.288
ClosedJul 7
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
BUYCOLOMBIA−$35.6K
Shares68,458.2
Total Traded$35,598.25
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$372

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

+18.6%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 42.9¢
+$133
BUYNO+132.9%
#2Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 51.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
Jul 10, 2026 @ 46.0¢
$100
BUYUNDER-100.0%
#4Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Jul 10, 2026 @ 31.0¢
$100
BUYUNDER-100.0%
#5Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 61.2¢
+$63
BUYYES+63.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.