Jsram

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politics fifwc-fra-mar-2026-07-09-more-markets

Edge

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$1.3M net profit from $14.4M of volume, with a 54.5% win rate across 154 trades, a 54% skill score, and a 9.3% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill: 54%
Confidence: 82.5%

Share on X

Win Rate

54.5%

Trades

154

Net P&L

+$1.3M

Total Vol

$14.4M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 154 resolved trades (Beta(60, 51))

Cumulative Realized P&L

154 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 154 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -1.0%

Yes24W / 25L

49.0%

49 resolved positions

No14W / 14L

50.0%

28 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (154)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 154

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score	BUYYES	298,126.0	$149,174.51	0.500	+$149.0K	Jul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	BUYARGENTINA	374,212.4	$264,403.15	0.707	+$109.8K	Jul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	BUYENGLAND	304,128.3	$206,939.25	0.680	+$97.2K	Jul 12
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS	321,363.6	$177,749.11	0.553	−$177.7K	Jul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUYUNDER	494,112.8	$290,105.99	0.587	+$204.0K	Jul 12
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	BUYNO	174,997.6	$73,498.98	0.420	+$101.5K	Jul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUYMAX HOLLOWAY	870,970.7	$619,746.16	0.712	+$251.2K	Jul 12
UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)	BUYGABLE STEVESON	100,000.0	$90,000.00	0.900	+$10.0K	Jul 12
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUYSWITZERLAND	113,383.2	$78,697.59	0.694	+$34.7K	Jul 12
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	BUYYES	709,842.7	$359,489.17	0.506	−$359.5K	Jul 11

Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score

BUYYES+$149.0K

Shares298,126.0

Total Traded$149,174.51

Avg Price0.500

ClosedJul 12

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

BUYARGENTINA+$109.8K

Shares374,212.4

Total Traded$264,403.15

Avg Price0.707

ClosedJul 12

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

BUYENGLAND+$97.2K

Shares304,128.3

Total Traded$206,939.25

Avg Price0.680

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)

BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS−$177.7K

Shares321,363.6

Total Traded$177,749.11

Avg Price0.553

ClosedJul 12

Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5

BUYUNDER+$204.0K

Shares494,112.8

Total Traded$290,105.99

Avg Price0.587

ClosedJul 12

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

BUYNO+$101.5K

Shares174,997.6

Total Traded$73,498.98

Avg Price0.420

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$251.2K

Shares870,970.7

Total Traded$619,746.16

Avg Price0.712

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)

BUYGABLE STEVESON+$10.0K

Shares100,000.0

Total Traded$90,000.00

Avg Price0.900

ClosedJul 12

Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

BUYSWITZERLAND+$34.7K

Shares113,383.2

Total Traded$78,697.59

Avg Price0.694

ClosedJul 12

Will England win on 2026-07-11?

BUYYES−$359.5K

Shares709,842.7

Total Traded$359,489.17

Avg Price0.506

ClosedJul 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$1,255

Win / Loss

16W / 4L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+62.7%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Norway vs. England: Both Teams to ScoreJul 12, 2026 @ 50.0¢BUYYES199.950.0¢$100+$100+99.9%

2Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceJul 12, 2026 @ 70.7¢BUYARGENTINA141.570.7¢$100+$42+41.5%

3Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceJul 12, 2026 @ 68.0¢BUYENGLAND147.068.0¢$100+$47+47.0%

4UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Jul 12, 2026 @ 55.3¢BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS180.855.3¢$100$100-100.0%

5Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5Jul 12, 2026 @ 58.7¢BUYUNDER170.358.7¢$100+$70+70.3%

#1Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score

Jul 12, 2026 @ 50.0¢

+$100

BUYYES+99.9%

#2Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Jul 12, 2026 @ 70.7¢

+$42

BUYARGENTINA+41.5%

#3Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Jul 12, 2026 @ 68.0¢

+$47

BUYENGLAND+47.0%

#4UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)

Jul 12, 2026 @ 55.3¢

$100

BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS-100.0%

#5Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5

Jul 12, 2026 @ 58.7¢

+$70

BUYUNDER+70.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.