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pizzaa...ualo

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$16K net profit from $99K of volume, with a 96.3% win rate across 27 trades, a 76% skill score, and a 15.8% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
76%
Confidence
99.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

96.3%

Trades

27

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$15.6K

Total Vol

$98.8K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 27 resolved trades (Beta(21, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

27 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 27 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes26W / 1L
96.3%

27 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (27)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 27

BUYYES+$491
Shares499,489.0
Total Traded$3,496.42
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 17
BUYYES+$1.6K
Shares956,008.2
Total Traded$5,736.05
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 17
BUYYES+$951
Shares1,565,496.7
Total Traded$10,958.48
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJun 14
BUYYES+$50
Shares49,999.4
Total Traded$599.99
Avg Price0.012
ClosedJun 9
BUYYES+$155
Shares152,706.9
Total Traded$916.24
Avg Price0.006
ClosedMay 14
BUYYES+$299
Shares148,641.7
Total Traded$891.85
Avg Price0.006
ClosedApr 29
BUYYES+$2.5K
Shares2,492,993.8
Total Traded$4,985.99
Avg Price0.002
ClosedApr 28
BUYYES+$2.3K
Shares2,494,593.3
Total Traded$9,978.37
Avg Price0.004
ClosedApr 28
BUYYES+$200
Shares3,442,143.8
Total Traded$6,884.29
Avg Price0.002
ClosedApr 28
BUYYES+$343
Shares2,192,571.7
Total Traded$6,527.29
Avg Price0.003
ClosedApr 28

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$360,464

Win / Loss

20W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+18023.2%

15 of 20

#1Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,186
BUYYES+14185.7%
#2Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.6¢
+$16,567
BUYYES+16566.7%
#3Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 14, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,186
BUYYES+14185.7%
#4Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 9, 2026 @ 1.2¢
+$8,233
BUYYES+8233.3%
#5Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 14, 2026 @ 0.6¢
+$16,567
BUYYES+16566.7%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.