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pmverygood

Last updated Jul 15, 01:02 AM

Top activity:politicszelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$2K net loss from $8K of volume, with a 45.5% win rate across 11 trades, a 40% skill score, and a -24.1% return on volume.

Only 11 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
40%
Confidence
21.6%
Share on X

Win Rate

45.5%

Trades

11

Small Sample

Net P&L

−$2.0K

Total Vol

$8.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 11 resolved trades (Beta(6, 9))

Cumulative Realized P&L

11 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 11 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -29.2%

Yes3W / 5L
37.5%

8 resolved positions

No2W / 1L
66.7%

3 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (11)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 11

Will Trump visit China by April 30?
BUYYES−$684
Shares760.0
Total Traded$684.26
Avg Price0.900
ClosedApr 30
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
BUYNO+$63
Shares2,630.2
Total Traded$2,551.31
Avg Price0.970
ClosedApr 12
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
BUYYES−$739
Shares999.7
Total Traded$738.99
Avg Price0.739
ClosedApr 12
Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026?
BUYYES−$585
Shares1,045.1
Total Traded$585.24
Avg Price0.560
ClosedApr 12
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?
BUYYES−$145
Shares947.3
Total Traded$144.71
Avg Price0.153
ClosedApr 12
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
BUYYES+$0
Shares651.5
Total Traded$622.76
Avg Price0.956
ClosedFeb 14
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
BUYYES−$0
Shares740.8
Total Traded$44.45
Avg Price0.060
ClosedFeb 14
Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
BUYYES+$10
Shares900.8
Total Traded$7.21
Avg Price0.008
ClosedFeb 9
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
BUYNO+$41
Shares1,063.2
Total Traded$446.55
Avg Price0.420
ClosedFeb 2
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
BUYNO−$1
Shares30.0
Total Traded$7.14
Avg Price0.238
ClosedJan 31

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$11,977

Win / Loss

5W / 6L

Win Rate

45.5%

Avg Return

+1088.9%

1–5 of 11

#1Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Apr 30, 2026 @ 90.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Apr 12, 2026 @ 97.0¢
+$3
BUYNO+3.1%
#3Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Apr 12, 2026 @ 73.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026?
Apr 12, 2026 @ 56.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?
Apr 12, 2026 @ 15.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 11 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.