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Candle...rums

Last updated Jul 16, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-mex-eng-2026-07-05-more-markets
Edge

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$3.8M net profit from $15M of volume, with a 50.0% win rate across 204 trades, a 50% skill score, and a 25.3% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill
50%
Confidence
45.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

50.0%

Trades

204

Net P&L

+$3.8M

Total Vol

$15.0M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 204 resolved trades (Beta(98, 99))

Cumulative Realized P&L

204 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 204 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -17.2%

Yes17W / 29L
37.0%

46 resolved positions

No13W / 11L
54.2%

24 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (204)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 204

Will England win on 2026-07-15?
BUYYES−$43.6K
Shares67,378.5
Total Traded$43,648.63
Avg Price0.648
ClosedJul 15
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
BUYOVER+$151.9K
Shares250,000.0
Total Traded$98,124.99
Avg Price0.393
ClosedJul 15
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
BUYYES+$269.3K
Shares369,999.8
Total Traded$100,741.71
Avg Price0.272
ClosedJul 15
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?
BUYNO+$16.7K
Shares49,999.9
Total Traded$33,249.91
Avg Price0.665
ClosedJul 15
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
BUYYES−$60.4K
Shares149,999.9
Total Traded$60,374.96
Avg Price0.402
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
BUYUNDER+$205.2K
Shares397,657.0
Total Traded$192,429.81
Avg Price0.484
ClosedJul 14
Spread: France (-1.5)
BUYFRANCE−$18.7K
Shares99,999.8
Total Traded$18,749.97
Avg Price0.187
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYFRANCE−$50.3K
Shares90,000.0
Total Traded$50,274.99
Avg Price0.559
ClosedJul 14
Argentina leading at halftime?
BUYNO−$10.9K
Shares17,939.0
Total Traded$10,942.81
Avg Price0.610
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$20.0K
Shares47,799.0
Total Traded$27,842.90
Avg Price0.583
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$234

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-11.7%

1–5 of 20

#1Will England win on 2026-07-15?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 64.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Jul 15, 2026 @ 39.3¢
+$155
BUYOVER+154.8%
#3Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 27.2¢
+$267
BUYYES+267.3%
#4Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 66.5¢
+$50
BUYNO+50.4%
#5Will France win on 2026-07-14?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 40.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.