huatimus
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Wins Often, Loses Bigger
$20K net loss from $208K of volume, with a 81.3% win rate across 64 trades, a 73% skill score, and a -9.6% return on volume.
Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.
- Skill
- 73%
- Confidence
- 99.9%
Win Rate
81.3%
Trades
64
Net P&L
−$19.9K
Total Vol
$208.3K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 64 resolved trades (Beta(29, 11))
Cumulative Realized P&L
64 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 64 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -4.8%
18 resolved positions
46 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (64)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 64
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$110
Win / Loss
17W / 3L
Win Rate
85.0%
Avg Return
-5.5%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.