rocky42008

Last updated Jul 21, 11:03 AM

Top activity:politics democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Wins Often, Loses Bigger

$92 net loss from $7K of volume, with a 75.0% win rate across 4 trades, a 49% skill score, and a -1.3% return on volume.

Only 4 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill: 49%
Confidence: 47.3%

Share on X

Win Rate

75.0%

Trades

Small Sample

Net P&L

−$92

Total Vol

$6.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 4 resolved trades (Beta(7, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

4 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

At least 5 resolved trades needed to show a rolling trend. This wallet has 4 resolved trades.

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +50.0%

Yes2W / 0L

100.0%

2 resolved positions

No1W / 1L

50.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (4)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–4 of 4

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUYYES	12,346.8	$1,863.85	0.151	+$37	Jul 10
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUYNO	2,985.1	$2,692.80	0.902	−$171	Jun 17
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUYNO	2,628.7	$1,932.35	0.735	+$32	Jun 16
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUYYES	7,228.5	$368.65	0.051	+$10	Jun 11

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

BUYYES+$37

Shares12,346.8

Total Traded$1,863.85

Avg Price0.151

ClosedJul 10

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

BUYNO−$171

Shares2,985.1

Total Traded$2,692.80

Avg Price0.902

ClosedJun 17

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

BUYNO+$32

Shares2,628.7

Total Traded$1,932.35

Avg Price0.735

ClosedJun 16

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

BUYYES+$10

Shares7,228.5

Total Traded$368.65

Avg Price0.051

ClosedJun 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$2,359

Win / Loss

3W / 1L

Win Rate

75.0%

Avg Return

+589.8%

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Jul 10, 2026 @ 15.1¢BUYYES662.415.1¢$100+$562+562.4%

2Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Jun 17, 2026 @ 90.2¢BUYNO110.990.2¢$100$100-100.0%

3Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Jun 16, 2026 @ 73.5¢BUYNO136.073.5¢$100+$36+36.0%

4Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Jun 11, 2026 @ 5.1¢BUYYES1,960.85.1¢$100+$1,861+1860.8%

#1Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Jul 10, 2026 @ 15.1¢

+$562

BUYYES+562.4%

#2Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Jun 17, 2026 @ 90.2¢

$100

BUYNO-100.0%

#3Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Jun 16, 2026 @ 73.5¢

+$36

BUYNO+36.0%

#4Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Jun 11, 2026 @ 5.1¢

+$1,861

BUYYES+1860.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 4 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.