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expectless

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsnew-york-city-mayoral-election
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$575K net loss from $9M of volume, with a 46.5% win rate across 99 trades, a 45% skill score, and a -6.4% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
45%
Confidence
21.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

46.5%

Trades

99

Net P&L

−$575.4K

Total Vol

$9.0M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 99 resolved trades (Beta(25, 31))

Cumulative Realized P&L

99 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 99 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -36.0%

Yes14W / 35L
28.6%

49 resolved positions

No31W / 17L
64.6%

48 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (99)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 99

Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
BUYYES−$84.2K
Shares150,000.0
Total Traded$84,237.15
Avg Price0.562
ClosedJul 1
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$2.8K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$21,200.00
Avg Price0.212
ClosedJul 1
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
BUYYES−$1.6K
Shares25,563.2
Total Traded$1,635.46
Avg Price0.064
ClosedJun 30
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?
BUYYES−$110.7K
Shares443,921.9
Total Traded$110,695.04
Avg Price0.249
ClosedJun 29
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?
BUYYES−$103.1K
Shares363,782.5
Total Traded$103,095.60
Avg Price0.283
ClosedJun 29
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?
BUYYES+$36.5K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$13,500.00
Avg Price0.270
ClosedJun 26
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?
BUYYES−$26.0K
Shares49,999.9
Total Traded$25,999.97
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJun 25
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$78
Shares39,000.0
Total Traded$38,649.00
Avg Price0.991
ClosedJun 25
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?
BUYYES+$15.2K
Shares87,853.3
Total Traded$70,205.25
Avg Price0.799
ClosedJun 21
Will England win on 2026-06-17?
BUYYES+$43.0K
Shares136,787.9
Total Traded$93,797.94
Avg Price0.686
ClosedJun 17

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$1,052

Win / Loss

6W / 14L

Win Rate

30.0%

Avg Return

-52.6%

1–5 of 20

#1Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 56.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 21.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 6.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?
Jun 29, 2026 @ 24.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?
Jun 29, 2026 @ 28.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.