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HorribleWork

Last updated Jul 15, 10:02 PM

Top activity:politicspresidential-election-winner-2028
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$136K net loss from $10.2M of volume, with a 64.1% win rate across 245 trades, a 62% skill score, and a -1.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
62%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

64.1%

Trades

245

Net P&L

−$136.0K

Total Vol

$10.2M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 245 resolved trades (Beta(134, 81))

Cumulative Realized P&L

245 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 245 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -52.6%

Yes29W / 60L
32.6%

89 resolved positions

No121W / 21L
85.2%

142 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (245)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 245

France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYSPAIN+$3.2K
Shares49,999.8
Total Traded$21,749.92
Avg Price0.435
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYFRANCE−$8.6K
Shares16,220.2
Total Traded$8,552.72
Avg Price0.527
ClosedJul 14
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$1.2K
Shares5,676.6
Total Traded$1,248.85
Avg Price0.220
ClosedJul 13
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
BUYSWITZERLAND−$14.7K
Shares59,999.8
Total Traded$14,699.96
Avg Price0.245
ClosedJul 12
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
BUYNO+$307
Shares51,100.0
Total Traded$50,793.40
Avg Price0.994
ClosedJul 11
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$3.3K
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$3,300.00
Avg Price0.330
ClosedJul 11
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals
BUYYES+$53.9K
Shares74,844.2
Total Traded$20,910.64
Avg Price0.279
ClosedJul 9
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
BUYMOROCCO−$5.6K
Shares25,000.0
Total Traded$5,625.00
Avg Price0.225
ClosedJul 9
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
BUYNO+$14.5K
Shares56,743.6
Total Traded$42,201.32
Avg Price0.744
ClosedJul 7
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
BUYCOLOMBIA−$60.0K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$60,000.00
Avg Price0.600
ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$154

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-7.7%

1–5 of 20

#1France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 43.5¢
+$130
BUYSPAIN+129.9%
#2France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 52.7¢
$100
BUYFRANCE-100.0%
#3Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 22.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 24.5¢
$100
BUYSWITZERLAND-100.0%
#5Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 99.4¢
+$1
BUYNO+0.6%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.