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Vatrer

Last updated Jul 14, 04:02 PM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

A Lot of Motion, Not Much Progress

$37K net profit from $5.2M of volume, with a 50.4% win rate across 119 trades, a 49% skill score, and a 0.7% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
49%
Confidence
45.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

50.4%

Trades

119

Net P&L

+$37.2K

Total Vol

$5.2M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 119 resolved trades (Beta(53, 54))

Cumulative Realized P&L

119 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 119 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -33.3%

Yes0W / 5L
0.0%

5 resolved positions

No4W / 8L
33.3%

12 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (119)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 119

BUYMILWAUKEE BREWERS+$2.4K
Shares6,749.2
Total Traded$4,319.47
Avg Price0.640
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES$45.0K
Shares96,516.8
Total Traded$44,976.07
Avg Price0.466
ClosedJul 1
BUYLOS ANGELES ANGELS$7.8K
Shares24,420.3
Total Traded$7,814.51
Avg Price0.320
ClosedJun 26
BUYUNDER+$55.0K
Shares112,313.6
Total Traded$57,279.94
Avg Price0.510
ClosedJun 25
BUYUNDER+$49.0K
Shares148,588.0
Total Traded$99,553.93
Avg Price0.670
ClosedJun 25
BUYOVER$161.5K
Shares316,642.5
Total Traded$161,487.67
Avg Price0.510
ClosedJun 25
BUYUNDER$15.2K
Shares32,647.4
Total Traded$15,214.78
Avg Price0.466
ClosedJun 24
BUYMILWAUKEE BREWERS+$10.5K
Shares20,634.7
Total Traded$10,110.99
Avg Price0.490
ClosedJun 24
BUYCOLORADO ROCKIES$14.7K
Shares28,803.7
Total Traded$14,684.69
Avg Price0.510
ClosedJun 24
BUYUNDER+$47.6K
Shares105,754.1
Total Traded$58,164.73
Avg Price0.550
ClosedJun 23

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$368

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

-18.4%

15 of 20

#1Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 64.0¢
+$56
BUYMILWAUKEE BREWERS+56.2%
#2Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 46.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics
Jun 26, 2026 @ 32.0¢
$100
BUYLOS ANGELES ANGELS-100.0%
#4Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
Jun 25, 2026 @ 51.0¢
+$96
BUYUNDER+96.1%
#5Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5
Jun 25, 2026 @ 67.0¢
+$49
BUYUNDER+49.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.