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Electricy

Last updated Jul 14, 10:02 PM

Top activity:sportswill-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$49K net profit from $672K of volume, with a 69.5% win rate across 200 trades, a 67% skill score, and a 7.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
67%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

69.5%

Trades

200

Net P&L

+$48.8K

Total Vol

$672.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 200 resolved trades (Beta(90, 44))

Cumulative Realized P&L

200 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 200 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -10.4%

Yes42W / 14L
75.0%

56 resolved positions

No41W / 7L
85.4%

48 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (200)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 200

Will France win on 2026-07-14?
BUYYES−$250
Shares671.4
Total Traded$250.08
Avg Price0.372
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYFRANCE−$9.3K
Shares193,429.5
Total Traded$9,751.17
Avg Price0.050
ClosedJul 14
Spread: France (-1.5)
BUYFRANCE−$311
Shares1,666.0
Total Traded$314.87
Avg Price0.189
ClosedJul 14
Argentina to score first vs. Switzerland?
BUYYES+$37
Shares100.0
Total Traded$63.00
Avg Price0.630
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
BUYARGENTINA+$1.4K
Shares5,614.8
Total Traded$4,222.86
Avg Price0.752
ClosedJul 12
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals
BUYYES−$415
Shares799.0
Total Traded$415.49
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 12
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$662
Shares2,124.0
Total Traded$662.29
Avg Price0.312
ClosedJul 12
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Switzerland?
BUYNO+$2
Shares274.8
Total Traded$272.91
Avg Price0.993
ClosedJul 12
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$109
Shares911.0
Total Traded$109.32
Avg Price0.120
ClosedJul 12
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$284
Shares500.0
Total Traded$283.75
Avg Price0.568
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$913

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-45.6%

1–5 of 20

#1Will France win on 2026-07-14?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 37.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 5.0¢
$100
BUYFRANCE-100.0%
#3Spread: France (-1.5)
Jul 14, 2026 @ 18.9¢
$100
BUYFRANCE-100.0%
#4Argentina to score first vs. Switzerland?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 63.0¢
+$59
BUYYES+58.7%
#5Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 75.2¢
+$33
BUYARGENTINA+33.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.