perroperro
Last updated Jul 15, 10:02 PM
Wallet Verdict
Wins Often, Loses Bigger
$9K net loss from $2M of volume, with a 81.0% win rate across 42 trades, a 70% skill score, and a -0.4% return on volume.
Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.
- Skill
- 70%
- Confidence
- 99.6%
Win Rate
81.0%
Trades
42
Medium Sample
Net P&L
−$9.0K
Total Vol
$2.0M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 42 resolved trades (Beta(28, 12))
Cumulative Realized P&L
42 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 42 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +0.6%
27 resolved positions
13 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (42)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 42
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$391
Win / Loss
16W / 4L
Win Rate
80.0%
Avg Return
-19.5%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.