tsihkodiives
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Ahead of the Market
$12K net profit from $516K of volume, with a 52.7% win rate across 207 trades, a 52% skill score, and a 2.4% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 52%
- Confidence
- 69.9%
Win Rate
52.7%
Trades
207
Net P&L
+$12.4K
Total Vol
$516.5K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 207 resolved trades (Beta(103, 96))
Cumulative Realized P&L
207 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 207 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -63.4%
85 resolved positions
114 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (207)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 207
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$1,497
Win / Loss
4W / 16L
Win Rate
20.0%
Avg Return
-74.9%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.