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tsihkodiives

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$12K net profit from $516K of volume, with a 52.7% win rate across 207 trades, a 52% skill score, and a 2.4% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
52%
Confidence
69.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

52.7%

Trades

207

Net P&L

+$12.4K

Total Vol

$516.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 207 resolved trades (Beta(103, 96))

Cumulative Realized P&L

207 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 207 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -63.4%

Yes14W / 71L
16.5%

85 resolved positions

No91W / 23L
79.8%

114 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (207)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 207

BUYNO$3.6K
Shares9,508.6
Total Traded$3,550.22
Avg Price0.373
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$432
Shares6,224.5
Total Traded$431.83
Avg Price0.069
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$761
Shares1,536.7
Total Traded$760.74
Avg Price0.495
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$1
Shares33.1
Total Traded$1.01
Avg Price0.030
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$1.6K
Shares2,826.2
Total Traded$1,588.94
Avg Price0.562
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$24
Shares192.6
Total Traded$24.27
Avg Price0.126
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$3
Shares308.5
Total Traded$3.08
Avg Price0.010
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$2
Shares110.7
Total Traded$2.10
Avg Price0.019
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$2
Shares151.0
Total Traded$2.01
Avg Price0.013
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES$46
Shares1,099.9
Total Traded$46.11
Avg Price0.042
ClosedJul 13

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$1,497

Win / Loss

4W / 16L

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Return

-74.9%

15 of 20

#1Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 37.3¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 6.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 49.5¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 3.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 56.2¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.