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1xx2

Last updated Jul 14, 06:02 PM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$261K net loss from $1.1M of volume, with a 27.5% win rate across 204 trades, a 30% skill score, and a -24.2% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
30%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

27.5%

Trades

204

Net P&L

−$260.7K

Total Vol

$1.1M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 204 resolved trades (Beta(46, 110))

Cumulative Realized P&L

204 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 204 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -27.1%

Yes10W / 53L
15.9%

63 resolved positions

No43W / 57L
43.0%

100 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (204)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 204

BUYNO+$5.7K
Shares10,754.0
Total Traded$5,026.63
Avg Price0.467
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$15.6K
Shares27,349.9
Total Traded$11,760.44
Avg Price0.430
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO$11.3K
Shares29,065.6
Total Traded$11,335.58
Avg Price0.390
ClosedJul 11
BUYNO$3.4K
Shares9,100.0
Total Traded$3,367.00
Avg Price0.370
ClosedJul 11
BUYYES$2.1K
Shares5,149.9
Total Traded$2,112.29
Avg Price0.410
ClosedJul 11
BUYYES$1.7K
Shares6,243.5
Total Traded$1,748.18
Avg Price0.280
ClosedJul 7
BUYNO+$11
Shares38.0
Total Traded$26.60
Avg Price0.700
ClosedJul 7
BUYYES+$609
Shares24,617.8
Total Traded$24,008.32
Avg Price0.975
ClosedJul 7
BUYNO$160
Shares262.0
Total Traded$159.82
Avg Price0.610
ClosedJul 7
BUYNO$9.8K
Shares19,582.0
Total Traded$9,791.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$9,473

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

+473.6%

15 of 20

#1Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 46.7¢
+$114
BUYNO+113.9%
#2Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 43.0¢
+$133
BUYNO+132.6%
#3Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 39.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score
Jul 11, 2026 @ 37.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 41.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.