0x6c10...df5c

Last updated Aug 8, 11:01 PM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$471 net profit from $8K of volume, with a 80.0% win rate across 5 trades, a 52% skill score, and a 5.7% return on volume.

Only 5 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill: 52%
Confidence: 55.9%

Share on X

Win Rate

80.0%

Trades

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$471

Total Vol

$8.3K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 5 resolved trades (Beta(7, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

5 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 5 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -33.3%

Yes2W / 1L

66.7%

3 resolved positions

No2W / 0L

100.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (5)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–5 of 5

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYNO	3,400.0	$2,781.20	0.818	+$291	Jul 20
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYYES	2,200.0	$1,295.60	0.589	+$904	Jul 20
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYYES	6,100.0	$943.10	0.155	−$943	Jul 19
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYNO	3,200.0	$3,070.17	0.959	+$130	Jul 15
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYYES	89,012.2	$178.02	0.002	+$89	Jun 14

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYNO+$291

Shares3,400.0

Total Traded$2,781.20

Avg Price0.818

ClosedJul 20

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYYES+$904

Shares2,200.0

Total Traded$1,295.60

Avg Price0.589

ClosedJul 20

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYYES−$943

Shares6,100.0

Total Traded$943.10

Avg Price0.155

ClosedJul 19

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYNO+$130

Shares3,200.0

Total Traded$3,070.17

Avg Price0.959

ClosedJul 15

Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYYES+$89

Shares89,012.2

Total Traded$178.02

Avg Price0.002

ClosedJun 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$49,896

Win / Loss

4W / 1L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+9979.3%

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 20, 2026 @ 81.8¢BUYNO122.281.8¢$100+$22+22.2%

2Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 20, 2026 @ 58.9¢BUYYES169.858.9¢$100+$70+69.8%

3Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 19, 2026 @ 15.5¢BUYYES646.815.5¢$100$100-100.0%

4Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 15, 2026 @ 95.9¢BUYNO104.295.9¢$100+$4+4.2%

5Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jun 14, 2026 @ 0.2¢BUYYES50,000.00.2¢$100+$49,900+49900.0%

#1Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 20, 2026 @ 81.8¢

+$22

BUYNO+22.2%

#2Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 20, 2026 @ 58.9¢

+$70

BUYYES+69.8%

#3Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 19, 2026 @ 15.5¢

$100

BUYYES-100.0%

#4Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 15, 2026 @ 95.9¢

+$4

BUYNO+4.2%

#5Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 14, 2026 @ 0.2¢

+$49,900

BUYYES+49900.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 5 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.